Champions League · resolved market
Will Aston Villa beat RB Leipzig?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbadc8579ed9434c3e923d162aa6c10f323c9612f5aefc497d8b2db04430f4e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 11c | 17,816$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.76 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 36c | 2,786$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.02 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…6396backed No | 61c | 2,485$1,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 41c | 2,000$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 60c | 1,557$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.6 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 61c | 1,090$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.5 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 40c | 1,036$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.77 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…59e2backed Yes | 39c | 762.34$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.03 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 43c | 723.41$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.91 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 38c | 661$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.82 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 60c | 300$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 44c | 249.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.18 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…49e5backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked No | 62c | 161$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8a…0acdbacked Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 41c | 130$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 61c | 40.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…4957backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…e210backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…35c2backed Yes | 66c | 28.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Yes | 40c | 25.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…3628backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 33cpaid | +225%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b29…d0a8backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1179…710bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2004…cf96backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aston Villa beat RB Leipzig?this page
- Will RB Leipzig beat Aston Villa?No won
- Will the match between RB Leipzig and Aston Villa end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.