Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0dbc06518e5af5cfcec9eb40f818ba3c39a175a46fa4c6f76e93e4fed78179c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 23c | 669.65$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 19c | 548.18$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 528.2$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…ea87backed Yes | 24c | 479.16$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.63 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 17c | 408.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 314.46$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 20c | 240.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 42c | 239.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a4…d89fbacked Yes | 37c | 227.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 70c | 184.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.78 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a6…bb90backed Yes | 7c | 172.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7a…b4b0backed Yes | 26c | 127.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 19c | 127.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 73c | 120.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 116.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed Yes | 13c | 115.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 115.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 15c | 110.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbd…b40ebacked Yes | 29c | 98.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca69…da77backed Yes | 33c | 94.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 91.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 78c | 77.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 78c | 77.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 16c | 76.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 80c | 74.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 20c | 70.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15f…ad19backed No | 80c | 58.8$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 27c | 48.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 74c | 46.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9656…9813backed No | 76c | 45.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 75cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 79c | 45.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 77c | 44.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c99…a880backed Yes | 26c | 43.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…8861backed Yes | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 73c | 40.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 38.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked No | 74c | 31.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed No | 76c | 30.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…e168backed Yes | 52c | 27.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25bd…3c3ebacked No | 70c | 24.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 61c | 23.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x901e…7389backed No | 71c | 22.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 86 | 70.9%61 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 69c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed No | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed No | 71c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.