MLB · resolved market
Marlins vs. Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd104e1c4cd4abb37f703ca1da3d9e7bc631d3834d23f02cc46d1ac476e046738
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cubsof Marlins, Cubs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,077
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,077 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30b2…b708backed Marlins | 31c | 9,994$3,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,098.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa496…6b77backed Cubs | 69c | 9,994$6,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,098.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Marlins | 28c | 2,167$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.71 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cubs | 73c | 1,010$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Marlins | 30c | 579.89$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.97 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cubs | 70c | 415.48$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.39 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Marlins | 29c | 399.95$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cubs | 69c | 309.84$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.15 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cubs | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Cubs | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cubs | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cubs | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Marlins | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Marlins | 21c | 193.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…c1cebacked Marlins | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Marlins | 30c | 142.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…f8a6backed Cubs | 70c | 118.45$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.07 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef5…6014backed Cubs | 70c | 108.44$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Marlins | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Cubs | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…a4a0backed Marlins | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…447dbacked Marlins | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…137fbacked Cubs | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cubs | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Cubs | 71c | 86.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…fcd9backed Cubs | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3539…b17bbacked Cubs | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…8339backed Marlins | 31c | 70.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cubs | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…2be2backed Cubs | 69c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a56…3b4ebacked Marlins | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cubs | 70c | 66.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…b172backed Marlins | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cubs | 70c | 48.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Marlins | 30c | 43.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Cubs | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 342 | 64.3%220 W · 122 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cubs | 74c | 38.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Cubs | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Cubs | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0229…c95cbacked Cubs | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…b560backed Cubs | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x946b…5857backed Cubs | 71c | 26.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Cubs | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…4d99backed Cubs | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…9e00backed Cubs | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb156…bad8backed Cubs | 70c | 16.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4a…d456backed Cubs | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd4…853dbacked Cubs | 70c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.