Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd124788f205cfaada9b6e44ba9f3fad87d0aa21f855176bdaaff098289cadc78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 5c | 1,759$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 1,146$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.48 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 73c | 412.76$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.7 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 214$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.82 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 179.44$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 28c | 172$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 144.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.21 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 43c | 135.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 134$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 119.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 94.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 51c | 80.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 63c | 77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 63c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 53.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 50.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 45.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 40.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 69c | 35.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 70c | 31.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 70c | 30.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8759…d7eabacked No | 67c | 30.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 42c | 28.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 75c | 27.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 41c | 26.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…53d0backed Yes | 39c | 25.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 72c | 18.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.