TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,587

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,602 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes11c1,903$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.384,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes9c1,404$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.982,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes2c1,057$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.896,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5daf…7d98backed Yes71c871.42$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.364438.6%17 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-2.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes68c660.19$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No34c658.8$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.1674926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0335…6ecabacked No38c649$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.895492.6%50 W · 4 L+17.4wins+0.32per pick60cpaid+56.1%equal weight74+0.22 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No22c423.59$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.939543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No38c378.76$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.464,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes55c378.55$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.1224542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ad…69f5backed No30c303.33$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.3326744.2%118 W · 149 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes27c211$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.547538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No31c190.51$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.311,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No42c158.42$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.955261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No41c156.63$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.044,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes59c153.06$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.151,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes66c151.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10061249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No22c150.04$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No28c135.83$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.851,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No42c131.66$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7792761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes73c130$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5310750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No42c123.23$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.891,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No40c121.84$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.674,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes79c117.77$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6181855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65f1…eed4backed Yes73c117.73$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.943053.3%16 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes77c105$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.733,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No35c100.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.212,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf56c…ad84backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105073.4%17 W · 490 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No35c97.51$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.532,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No40c89.19$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.73,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33c…488cbacked Yes57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010244.1%45 W · 57 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes57c86.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1419252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes27c85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.952416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No37c84.21$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked No34c83.8$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4629927.8%83 W · 216 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes56c70.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7646148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38f2…8690backed Yes57c70.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No35c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.23,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1f…3cd1backed Yes59c67.8$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No42c66.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8513444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes55c62.68$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes58c60.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1819541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes59c59.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7454656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes60c57.42$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.451,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes59c57.37$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3412530.4%38 W · 87 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes80c55.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.451,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes58c53.76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.187945.6%36 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e44…2c35backed Yes62c51.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.038350.6%42 W · 41 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No21c51.48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6777151%393 W · 378 L+23.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3082742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbd…5900backed Yes59c50.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.516935.5%60 W · 109 L-34.5wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-36.4%equal weight30-0.18 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No31c49.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.673,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xecb8…2a2abacked Yes58c44.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes60c41.62$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252748.1%13 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick63cpaid-30.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd98…1211backed Yes59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.64355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No41c36.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.664,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No30c36.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.172,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bf1…7cb7backed No44c32.39$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.149169.2%63 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes78c31.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.792,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes72c31.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6428546.3%132 W · 153 L-17.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes57c30.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.41,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e1d…b7cabacked Yes72c29.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.591442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-38.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes70c28.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes65c28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.24,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes74c27.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1812238.5%47 W · 75 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa397…7817backed Yes56c27.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1414053.6%75 W · 65 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes59c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510044%44 W · 56 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73e0…e538backed Yes69c25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.257245.8%33 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes60c20.8$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.482,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf184…d472backed Yes68c20.3$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.829769.1%67 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e34…224ebacked Yes70c20.21$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.147055.7%39 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdeb…0b98backed Yes58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5927…ba9abacked Yes59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.828762.4%179 W · 108 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…b97ebacked Yes64c19.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6828035.4%99 W · 181 L-69.3wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.3%equal weight25-0.23 edge/pick
0x26f8…3770backed Yes62c19.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.01742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick63cpaid-34.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x14af…887ebacked Yes72c19.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.824759.6%28 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes60c19.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4242948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes76c18.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411146.8%52 W · 59 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes76c14.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910166.3%67 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e3…5897backed Yes74c13.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.018431%26 W · 58 L-20.8wins-0.25per pick56cpaid-52.8%equal weight29-0.19 edge/pick
0x2248…53d0backed Yes80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103259.4%19 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.