MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd14561a7ab0b2977bba1b202da4b84a73a7fa0b55978db81be9f788f13fce9bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 7,207$3,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,851.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked New York Yankees | 52c | 6,083$3,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,160.52 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 25c | 867.1$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.88 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 64c | 425$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.75 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Yankees | 64c | 312.06$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.81 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed New York Yankees | 78c | 296$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.09 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees | 75c | 188.54$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.73 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed New York Yankees | 75c | 163.49$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.86 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed New York Yankees | 75c | 123.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 55c | 121.39$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 119.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.85 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 72c | 119$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 75c | 90.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed New York Yankees | 75c | 62.81$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 62.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Yankees | 80c | 49.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 46.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked New York Yankees | 52c | 44.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed New York Yankees | 52c | 44.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed New York Yankees | 61c | 44.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed New York Yankees | 52c | 41.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…4bfabacked New York Yankees | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Yankees | 70c | 25.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 15.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York YankeesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.