MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd25444262e61b3ab1f483590eb110f3ca539557f093f21089500313d7bee0bd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 63c | 77,509$48,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,811.5 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 59,695$22,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,288.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 40c | 18,211$7,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,365.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 35c | 5,999$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.65 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 40c | 3,847$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,525.49 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 69c | 3,023$2,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 3,015$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 68c | 2,738$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.71 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 41c | 2,087$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,231.33 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Under | 52c | 1,820$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.35 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 1,152$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 49c | 1,092$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.08 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 33c | 927.59$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.26 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 15c | 586.34$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.89 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 38c | 585$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.3 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228e…4f84backed Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 76c | 500$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 57c | 435.9$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.21 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 428.15$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.92 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Under | 3c | 387.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.74 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…a690backed Over | 47c | 362.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.05 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 39c | 201$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 40c | 158.58$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…82c6backed Over | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 59c | 103.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 314 | 49.4%155 W · 159 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 41c | 91.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 44c | 78.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 34c | 58.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…c8d0backed Under | 42c | 46.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 41c | 45.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 38c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 58c | 41.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Under | 30c | 39.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 51c | 38.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 55c | 36.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 70c | 35.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…30f7backed Under | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 71c | 34.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Under | 54c | 33.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…d653backed Under | 59c | 31.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fc…d8f4backed Under | 59c | 31.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec8…4bedbacked Under | 59c | 30.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…7c54backed Over | 44c | 30.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 70c | 22.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…767dbacked Over | 47c | 22.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 115 | 60.9%70 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Under | 76c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York YankeesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York YankeesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.