Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1476a0a8eb67343884b1c9e89833c645abfd86f7963d92010a7186be57307bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,105 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 75c | 664.2$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.2 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 55c | 363.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.62 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86ce…307dbacked Yes | 73c | 338.06$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 244.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 223.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 45c | 215$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 45c | 175.91$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.11 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 119.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 35c | 106.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 42c | 100.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 43c | 94.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…9b79backed Yes | 75c | 94.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 57c | 93.19$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 79.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 74.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 43c | 70.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 59c | 68.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 25c | 64.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 64.37$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 63.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 58c | 63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8680…a628backed Yes | 40c | 62.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeff…08e4backed Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 38c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 62c | 56.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 45c | 51.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 41c | 48.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 43c | 46.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…d4cebacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 77c | 46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 43.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 36c | 42.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 27c | 42.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 41.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 40.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 66c | 37.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 36.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…6fecbacked Yes | 42c | 35.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 49c | 34.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 40c | 32.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9c…ebd6backed Yes | 74c | 29.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 79c | 29.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 60c | 28.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb957…b8acbacked Yes | 70c | 27.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 71c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c7…d4cdbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.