Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6feb1a2b0e103c0532646a2950632f78b542369d45f2a5fe4beea41e0c14bc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,941 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 25c | 458.37$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 78c | 447.85$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.34 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 355.3$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 4c | 343$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 29c | 314.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.71 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 21c | 309.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.23 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 58c | 301.3$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.21 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 280.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.93 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…d809backed No | 77c | 259.15$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 216.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 173.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.66 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 61c | 164.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…c3b3backed Yes | 40c | 161.32$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 25c | 157.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3a…aa4abacked No | 64c | 142.62$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 14c | 139$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.54 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 138.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 134.19$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 38c | 131.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.28 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 41c | 113.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 109.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…a3a4backed No | 76c | 107.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 100.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.29 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…bd30backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +118%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…4127backed Yes | 31c | 94.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 16c | 93.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 29c | 93.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 33c | 91.01$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.63 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d96…f714backed No | 64c | 87.62$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 63.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 31c | 61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x419e…4cd4backed No | 76c | 53.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 51.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 50.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1c…e948backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa74b…3241backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfc…26aebacked No | 64c | 47.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 34c | 42.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 59c | 41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 25c | 40.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked No | 75c | 34.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a2…ff3bbacked Yes | 41c | 34.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 33.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 23.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 70c | 21.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4063…ccb3backed No | 69c | 19.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 69c | 19.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 68c | 18.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 15.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked No | 71c | 15.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.