MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd14d1485ad3101bb4ffee72ab765a1f0ddef845b88c03a8c77aa7aea21f61d92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed New York Mets | 65c | 4,336$2,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,504.39 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 3,204$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.01 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 3,089$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.41 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 2,984$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.93 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked New York Mets | 63c | 2,806$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.29 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked New York Mets | 64c | 1,400$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.09 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 1,336$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.39 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed New York Mets | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed St. Louis Cardinals | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked New York Mets | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked New York Mets | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 65c | 259.13$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed New York Mets | 63c | 158.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked New York Mets | 63c | 120.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked New York Mets | 65c | 99.61$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked New York Mets | 64c | 69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked New York Mets | 64c | 60.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed New York Mets | 64c | 53.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed New York Mets | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked New York Mets | 64c | 35.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 34.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed St. Louis Cardinals | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed New York Mets | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed New York Mets | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed New York Mets | 63c | 20.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.