MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd14ffece64b930e69cc0fec74625a7c0e9f92b2b4ed4661eab2c81ef79e81550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b9e…b1e0backed Under | 70c | 1,982$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…112cbacked Under | 73c | 1,785$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 27c | 1,016$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.55 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e9…14e0backed Over | 27c | 882.99$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd0…d133backed Under | 73c | 877.55$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 36c | 601.84$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.01 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 9c | 589.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 77c | 506.05$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 37c | 420.35$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.49 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 35c | 344.35$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.52 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 73c | 267.59$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 65c | 204.22$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…dc5fbacked Under | 70c | 196.4$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 64c | 187.85$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.63 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…a421backed Under | 67c | 146.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 64c | 109.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 64c | 109.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 64c | 96.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 64c | 79.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 1,299 | 50.9%661 W · 638 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 70.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…b79fbacked Under | 65c | 66.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 73c | 59.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Over | 36c | 53.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 73c | 46.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 73c | 46.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 64c | 31.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 73c | 29.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05e…180bbacked Over | 36c | 28.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked Under | 64c | 23.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Under | 64c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles AngelsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 2.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 3.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.