MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7df8c5b5f21be36bc4ef3e5947cb6f5fc51ab5d1590945ebceb2bf35e31b29ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 1,168$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.18 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 844.11$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.23 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 735.79$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.97 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 39c | 640$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 372.91$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.78 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 293.55$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.32 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 287.16$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.09 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Los Angeles Angels | 53c | 261.68$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.92 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Mariners | 24c | 240.79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 213.76$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.43 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Seattle Mariners | 24c | 175.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…0a3bbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 158.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 141.53$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 122.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 116.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8140…aa34backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Los Angeles Angels | 52c | 101.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9309…c705backed Los Angeles Angels | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Seattle Mariners | 48c | 98.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 96.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…502bbacked Seattle Mariners | 29c | 76.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 70.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…1a00backed Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 70.04$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 66.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 62.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 52.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 47.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 46.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 41.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 40.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 36.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Seattle Mariners | 30c | 35.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 32.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…b79fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 29.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 29.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 24.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…8f91backed Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 21.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b057backed Los Angeles Angels | 55c | 21.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d13…197abacked Los Angeles Angels | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles AngelsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 2.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 3.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 4.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.