TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
OGof Team Falcons, OG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,462 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18bb…e5cdbacked OG37c16,657$6,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,454.4513020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons2c12,183$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.561,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons67c10,448$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,00054556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Team Falcons68c7,773$5,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,256.2511547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed OG33c5,000$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,349.9645139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Team Falcons69c4,411$3,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,030.6722842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Falcons66c4,074$2,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,678.6271454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed OG34c4,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,639.9913441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8061…1ca2backed OG76c2,878$2,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.52666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons18c2,508$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.411,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…afadbacked Team Falcons69c2,351$1,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.46150.8%31 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons28c2,302$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.761,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons28c2,001$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.921,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed OG33c2,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,339.9981029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed OG58c1,820$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.1966662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed OG34c1,692$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,117.4477941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons58c1,682$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.7186949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Team Falcons67c1,651$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.4517546.9%82 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked OG34c1,421$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.9373841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7351…b857backed Team Falcons62c1,365$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.592744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Team Falcons55c1,299$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.297950.6%40 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed OG32c1,205$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.0869644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed OG33c1,200$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.9749455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed OG37c1,089$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.761,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Falcons63c1,087$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.4746649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Falcons65c1,000$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65231245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf535…e984backed OG60c967.75$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.173100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked OG32c960.67$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.387231.9%23 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons29c849.17$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.291,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked OG39c799.97$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.9836759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed OG35c792$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.819147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de4…7f2ebacked Team Falcons43c731.41$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.952250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed OG59c677.97$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.9796557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked OG36c652.69$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.6518362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Falcons28c599.99$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16846240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked OG35c560$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3641,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons51c517.85$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.422,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed OG64c515.63$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.6330356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked OG73c514$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.7839660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Team Falcons65c500$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32537047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked OG34c499.99$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.9917133.9%58 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bf2…7706backed OG33c420.35$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.633225%8 W · 24 L-6.4wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-44%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Team Falcons30c417.31$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9618746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed OG36c416.67$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.6750053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Falcons65c405.86$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.72,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Falcons62c401.59$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25036654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1f…aa39backed Team Falcons65c400.31$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.245061.6%277 W · 173 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked OG32c399.96$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.9816725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Team Falcons38c385.32$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3325147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked OG71c366.78$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9815461.7%95 W · 59 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed OG33c354.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.2733549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe2…e4d2backed Team Falcons65c336$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.567753.2%41 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Team Falcons64c312.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26ac…a735backed Team Falcons65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x879b…fb7bbacked Team Falcons66c302.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004168.3%28 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc71a…f135backed OG37c285.86$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Team Falcons44c284$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9654753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked OG65c283.74$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.319651%49 W · 47 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed OG35c251.43$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.4361745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf6…c629backed Team Falcons49c248.98$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Team Falcons62c240.79$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.295166.7%34 W · 17 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Team Falcons66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13211943.7%52 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Falcons66c200$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13285851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Team Falcons66c178$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4812454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5501…fe9abacked OG59c175.25$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.25450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed OG33c173.3$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7451751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Team Falcons67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020457.8%118 W · 86 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d8…c3f8backed Team Falcons64c146$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.448035%28 W · 52 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-27.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed OG34c144.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.491435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755a…6da6backed OG35c142.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8618444.6%82 W · 102 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked OG32c137.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.137441.2%154 W · 220 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9a3…f319backed Team Falcons64c135.54$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.652128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb69f…d51cbacked Team Falcons68c127.51$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.713964.1%25 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8b0…2aaebacked OG49c126.61$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.992352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Team Falcons58c118$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.444748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb2…0b31backed OG42c118$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.448246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Team Falcons69c116.35$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8086451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed Team Falcons65c114.97$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8220858.7%122 W · 86 L+22.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed OG35c114.29$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2941037.3%153 W · 257 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Team Falcons61c111$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7159250.5%299 W · 293 L-20.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x312c…0f42backed Team Falcons66c109.98$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.5837252.7%196 W · 176 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked OG38c106.64$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4570236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x523e…3128backed Team Falcons71c106.15$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb68…c695backed Team Falcons62c103$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.863951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed OG57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4360251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Team Falcons56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3392561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed OG35c96.02$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.31,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1528…e141backed Team Falcons60c79.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.461915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-69.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed OG40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4559556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f28…1edebacked Team Falcons69c72.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010456.7%59 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb67…fd46backed Team Falcons41c69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.299533.7%32 W · 63 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed OG35c67.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.342356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dab…f602backed OG42c64.15$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.213228.1%9 W · 23 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-43.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed Team Falcons41c60.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Falcons67c60.49$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7323653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Team Falcons62c60.07$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2422954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed OG34c59.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5922456.3%126 W · 98 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed OG34c59.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.188852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Team Falcons65c57.79$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.458251.2%42 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb150…236dbacked Team Falcons66c53.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352642.3%11 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.