TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, OG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$164,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,473 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 169 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons62c27,275$17,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,275.554556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed OG35c10,849$3,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,797.955236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked OG31c10,682$3,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,308.342,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed OG41c10,000$4,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,136.2433746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed OG36c8,532$3,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,048.1851751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons68c7,938$5,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.4855157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed OG35c7,657$2,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,679.9971454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed OG36c7,423$2,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,707.0166662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked OG41c7,371$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.7818746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked OG30c7,303$2,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,190.941242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Team Falcons65c6,961$4,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,437.018749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons66c6,284$4,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,141.9786949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked OG34c5,165$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.7373841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Falcons61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.242650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Falcons65c4,004$2,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,416.5946649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked OG39c3,624$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4001,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked OG36c3,010$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.031,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked OG20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60013020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked OG38c2,630$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.171,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked OG34c2,562$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.1922954.1%124 W · 105 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed OG37c2,431$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.0677941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Team Falcons63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74013441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Falcons65c1,923$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.0816665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed OG36c1,638$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.671,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Team Falcons66c1,520$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.36160.7%37 W · 24 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Team Falcons70c1,510$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.5630155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed OG38c1,500$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57658744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed OG35c1,403$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.971,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed OG35c1,402$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.761,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Team Falcons55c1,276$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.27955.7%44 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Team Falcons68c1,180$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.4818362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9919…f261backed Team Falcons69c1,165$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.5518954%102 W · 87 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Team Falcons66c999$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.6633549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Team Falcons64c938.13$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.1236343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7351…b857backed Team Falcons70c918$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.672744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed OG36c859.46$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.419636.5%35 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Team Falcons66c841.44$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.8754753.6%293 W · 254 L+22.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked OG35c750.7$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.1260542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Team Falcons67c747.18$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.1820367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked OG35c587.48$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.737231.9%23 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed OG29c578.87$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.555147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Falcons67c522.5$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.536654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed Team Falcons75c518.58$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.2919664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed OG33c432.47$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5744645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed OG37c405.41$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbd…7d99backed Team Falcons68c400$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1282171.4%15 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+72.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed Team Falcons70c380.99$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.319147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Team Falcons63c380.95$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.4530356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc55…a069backed Team Falcons66c327.55$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.187448.6%36 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Falcons69c317.47$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.6772035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x879b…fb7bbacked Team Falcons64c311.77$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.774168.3%28 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Falcons65c306.91$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.9161745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed OG26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7811943.7%52 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Team Falcons63c300$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11114744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Falcons62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11461548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked OG40c299.99$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12188166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x523e…3128backed Team Falcons60c294.51$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.873148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Falcons61c284.69$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0329548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Team Falcons66c274.89$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3516550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed OG39c272.95$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10756548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3492…983fbacked OG37c266$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.927159.2%42 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Team Falcons62c254.1$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.5631835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Team Falcons66c251.74$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.498251.2%42 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked Team Falcons66c230.45$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.266753.7%36 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd238…ad7fbacked Team Falcons80c225.05$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed OG46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Falcons60c210.16$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.377458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Falcons62c210$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.848352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed OG47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.260251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked OG33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6616725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb69f…d51cbacked OG30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603964.1%25 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x476b…30a0backed Team Falcons61c199.99$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Team Falcons67c199.42$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3911549.6%57 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Team Falcons75c193.48$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3718075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Team Falcons77c191.35$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0121264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4b4…17b1backed OG25c175$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5513331.6%42 W · 91 L-10.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a58dbacked Team Falcons66c170.39$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.498257.3%47 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0d4…0289backed Team Falcons68c160.68$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.685453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92de…87eebacked Team Falcons65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-40.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked OG37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.570236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Team Falcons62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.0547951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x461f…8719backed Team Falcons67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.259749.5%48 W · 49 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43e8…af56backed OG26c147.81$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385226.9%14 W · 38 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-41.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5cc9…ab1cbacked Team Falcons61c146.89$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.823100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed OG34c146.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8c…2359backed Team Falcons67c145.82$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.763452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed OG35c144.37$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5320858.7%122 W · 86 L+22.1wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+14.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x8ea8…077dbacked Team Falcons66c129.72$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.685349.1%26 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Team Falcons67c127.54$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0911450%57 W · 57 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Team Falcons62c120.91$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4250832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked OG32c120.12$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0949644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked OG31c117.13$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.081,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed Team Falcons66c116.91$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.710550.5%53 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked Team Falcons66c114.72$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9613247.7%63 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed OG34c110.14$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.132356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed OG30c109.98$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.22,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd9…f506backed OG30c106.92$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb2…0b31backed OG42c106.06$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.58246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked OG33c103.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.72,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Team Falcons65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.