Asian League · resolved market
Avispa Fukuoka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd17ddf2224c2e9586d7b24edd38ad383039e7b8a0825139e4f5745a24aa69630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,301
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb5a4…5780backed Over | 55c | 5,461$3,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,003.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 2,263$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.86 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed Over | 32c | 1,180$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Over | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 69c | 952.74$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.4 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 30c | 660.29$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.2 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 30c | 650.29$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.2 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 45c | 566.24$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.43 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 73c | 564.13$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.07 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 45c | 555$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.25 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 45c | 331.22$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.17 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 45c | 331.22$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.17 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 45c | 331.22$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.17 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 45c | 326.41$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.52 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 45c | 326.22$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.42 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 45c | 326.22$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.42 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…cbc9backed Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Under | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.56 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 45c | 142.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 45c | 142.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 45c | 142.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 56c | 61.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Under | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 51c | 50.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Under | 57c | 43.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 45c | 26.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5this page
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 2.5Under won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 3.5Under won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: V-Varen Nagasaki (-1.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.