Earnings · resolved market
Will Papa John's (PZZA) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1999414200daf5a006833cb031350568f0645c2a3cb48877546c26ccc07c647
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 35c | 518.25$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.67 | 64 | 100%64 W · 0 L | +25.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 23c | 433.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.72 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 57c | 249.5$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.15 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 240.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…f6dcbacked Yes | 58c | 172$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 59c | 154.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.73 | 168 | 64.3%108 W · 60 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec2d…de68backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…55a9backed No | 38c | 90.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 41c | 65.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 80c | 64.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 41c | 55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…131ebacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed No | 42c | 47.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 23c | 44.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…d271backed Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…4642backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 42c | 36.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 42c | 27.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 40c | 27.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad12…b115backed Yes | 58c | 19.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 58c | 17.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 17.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.