Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Astini+5 vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd19d4acd12fbf4dd85eece4164ccff4c90c0748768090051f846eb7351054a61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof Astini+5, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,781 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x913c…39b3backed L1ga Team | 40c | 5,256$2,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,153.57 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Astini+5 | 13c | 1,374$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.9 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Astini+5 | 57c | 894$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.58 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Astini+5 | 73c | 882.98$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.07 | 510 | 49%250 W · 260 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Astini+5 | 54c | 646.42$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 189 | 54%102 W · 87 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Astini+5 | 62c | 637.68$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.16 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Astini+5 | 56c | 533.36$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.52 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked Astini+5 | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Astini+5 | 32c | 398.58$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed L1ga Team | 67c | 383$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…2f73backed Astini+5 | 53c | 377.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked L1ga Team | 63c | 339.4$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.62 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…e5d6backed Astini+5 | 76c | 326.32$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…c72abacked L1ga Team | 28c | 325.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.43 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…538dbacked Astini+5 | 56c | 300.09$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Astini+5 | 57c | 280.72$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.06 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked L1ga Team | 47c | 266.66$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.71 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed L1ga Team | 28c | 266.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.48 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Astini+5 | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Astini+5 | 75c | 249.99$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.99 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Astini+5 | 52c | 219.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.09 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Astini+5 | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked L1ga Team | 50c | 164$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Astini+5 | 58c | 150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Astini+5 | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…5b84backed Astini+5 | 51c | 138.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Astini+5 | 58c | 137.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed L1ga Team | 43c | 102.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.65 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Astini+5 | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Astini+5 | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd15e…db59backed Astini+5 | 27c | 83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed L1ga Team | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Astini+5 | 31c | 68.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Astini+5 | 49c | 61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed L1ga Team | 49c | 60.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Astini+5 | 52c | 58.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed L1ga Team | 61c | 51.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 167 | 52.7%88 W · 79 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Astini+5 | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed L1ga Team | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…806dbacked Astini+5 | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Astini+5 | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Astini+5 | 78c | 32.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…4596backed Astini+5 | 53c | 32.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64c…393dbacked L1ga Team | 51c | 31.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked L1ga Team | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Astini+5 | 76c | 29.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 154 | 50%77 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed Astini+5 | 51c | 29.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 720 | 35.1%253 W · 467 L | -24.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked L1ga Team | 44c | 25.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Astini+5 | 57c | 24.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Astini+5 | 49c | 20.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Astini+5 | 75c | 17.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs L1ga Team (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group BL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: Astini+5 vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.