Tennis · resolved market
ATP Los Cabos: Rublev vs. Kovacevic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2276f5abcff0e39b31f5154f16a28280803da4ebb431fd60143fea7564d61a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kovacevicof Rublev, Kovacevic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Kovacevic | 30c | 12,769$3,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,980.29 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…693fbacked Rublev | 74c | 6,273$4,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,641.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Rublev | 66c | 3,883$2,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,577.56 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Rublev | 64c | 3,484$2,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,226.52 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Rublev | 65c | 3,385$2,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,211.28 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4200…a64bbacked Rublev | 77c | 1,773$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…5c93backed Kovacevic | 31c | 1,167$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.2 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Kovacevic | 31c | 900$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe560…11f0backed Rublev | 78c | 820.94$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Rublev | 50c | 653$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.6 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rublev | 79c | 632.91$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Kovacevic | 21c | 632.91$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Kovacevic | 42c | 588.43$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.52 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Rublev | 67c | 550$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Kovacevic | 32c | 313.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.91 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Kovacevic | 32c | 165.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…4e87backed Rublev | 69c | 147.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…05b4backed Rublev | 76c | 145.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Rublev | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Kovacevic | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Kovacevic | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cd…cec3backed Kovacevic | 29c | 90.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Kovacevic | 23c | 90.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Kovacevic | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Kovacevic | 21c | 61.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Rublev | 74c | 39.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Rublev | 70c | 15.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 122 | 56.6%69 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.