Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd231de138a523042248e579be26dc7b3a70abd53bb642e35ff41d0c332ace29b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 819.75$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.31 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 57c | 462.2$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 389.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 66c | 294.43$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 24c | 291.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 30c | 289.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 283.85$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.3 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 38c | 260.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 215.13$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 198.02$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 45c | 191.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 155.03$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 45c | 154$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 53c | 135.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 40c | 117.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 107.21$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed Yes | 47c | 107.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 65c | 101$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 32c | 99.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 29c | 99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…7e00backed No | 53c | 89.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 84.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 77c | 84.11$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed No | 55c | 84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 72c | 83.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 48c | 82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 42c | 80.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 76.4$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 38c | 76.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 58c | 68.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 49c | 64.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 63.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 62.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 45c | 57.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 55.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 55.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 71c | 52.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 55c | 51.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 47.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 41.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 24c | 41.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 41.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 39.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 47c | 38.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 60c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 57c | 31.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 54c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed No | 69c | 30.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 69c | 30.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…ec06backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 47c | 29.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 45c | 29.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 45c | 24.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…d815backed No | 53c | 23.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 43c | 23.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 22.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…7d89backed No | 57c | 21.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…1291backed No | 53c | 21.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed No | 51c | 20.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 65c | 18.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 68c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.