Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x752c7b7e18e4f19d0010b7106b089090efcd0c30344f68ff5df6ad2305ff64b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc92b…a1c4backed Yes | 79c | 929.56$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.26 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 785.94$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 630.9$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.19 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 14c | 541.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 54c | 527.96$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.42 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 517.49$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed No | 72c | 498.52$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.93 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 483.46$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 4c | 460$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 39c | 427.9$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.88 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 22c | 330.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 44c | 328.89$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.15 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 70c | 311.43$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 36c | 269.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.11 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 14c | 232.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 66c | 231$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 47c | 229.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.91 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 51c | 223.81$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 31c | 192.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.79 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 69c | 189.38$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 165.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 159.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.56 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 27c | 154.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 57c | 154.24$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3193…cc5abacked Yes | 71c | 154$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.97 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…7c99backed No | 69c | 143.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 23c | 137.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 53c | 120.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 75c | 109.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…4a77backed Yes | 68c | 108.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 107.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 64c | 102.14$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 41c | 100.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.29 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 86.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 29c | 86.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23e…2623backed Yes | 31c | 79.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 65c | 70.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 31c | 66.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 28c | 64.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 71c | 64.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 37c | 62.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 35c | 60.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 59.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 66c | 58.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 80c | 57.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 73c | 56.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 33c | 55.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked No | 57c | 49.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 34c | 42.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 64c | 41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 28c | 36.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 35.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 72c | 34.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 33c | 33.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…aef2backed Yes | 30c | 33.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 33.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 76c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 41c | 32.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 31.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 58c | 31.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 66c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 59c | 30.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 69c | 30.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed No | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 71c | 28.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd314…12d9backed No | 66c | 28.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 41c | 27.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 65c | 27.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 72c | 27.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…0799backed No | 44c | 26.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 44c | 22.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47b9…90ffbacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cab…7ff6backed No | 70c | 21.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 66c | 16.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb989…9f16backed Yes | 62c | 16.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…15e9backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 77°F or below on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.