Asian League · resolved market
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-02-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd244149cf0ca43d2e388fd6621c7528a6f5b28d4342798a95271f71a15d3b591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed No | 44c | 33,042$14,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,561.23 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 56c | 9,346$5,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,217.64 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 46c | 6,352$2,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,911.17 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…b7b7backed Yes | 56c | 5,852$3,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,277.12 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 56c | 4,473$2,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,504.6 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 45c | 4,220$1,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320.99 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 56c | 3,774$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,125.65 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…8958backed Yes | 25c | 2,645$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 45c | 2,485$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.82 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 47c | 2,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Yes | 55c | 1,800$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.82 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,269$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.14 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 33c | 1,184$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.14 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,104$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.85 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5db…f982backed Yes | 55c | 1,018$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.84 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -38%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 47c | 980.28$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.06 | 794 | 35.1%279 W · 515 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 34c | 936.47$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.67 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 34c | 863$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.27 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 55c | 807.1$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.89 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes | 21c | 626.25$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 47c | 600$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 78c | 592.32$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.55 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 14c | 588.25$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 43c | 537.64$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.46 | 105 | 25.7%27 W · 78 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 15c | 500$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 103 | 35%36 W · 67 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 46c | 425.97$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.58 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 38c | 405.37$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.74 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 46c | 400.41$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.2 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 45c | 375.97$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.78 | 275 | 40.7%112 W · 163 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 42c | 369.67$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.41 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a33…d0e2backed No | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes | 56c | 306.76$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.79 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc755…d0c4backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 263.57$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.45 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 55c | 261.33$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.73 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…c00cbacked Yes | 30c | 236.87$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…cdd3backed No | 76c | 234$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 56c | 218.89$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 87 | 35.6%31 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 49c | 195.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.53 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…4c5abacked Yes | 36c | 173.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Yes | 47c | 128.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb48c…ab11backed Yes | 16c | 122.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 63c | 101.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 20c | 100.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 307 | 50.8%156 W · 151 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 17c | 98.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed No | 45c | 98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 78c | 94.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…cc37backed No | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 56c | 88.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Yes | 60c | 83.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed No | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 56c | 77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked No | 47c | 72.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 34c | 66.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 38c | 66.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed No | 46c | 60.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 49c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…e749backed Yes | 38c | 52.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 45c | 50.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 44c | 48.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…4c1dbacked Yes | 38c | 41.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…a938backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Yes | 40c | 35.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…fc8abacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e78…663abacked Yes | 56c | 31.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…e608backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked No | 49c | 30.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab4…50acbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6976…3185backed No | 45c | 29.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked No | 40c | 27.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked No | 49c | 24.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed No | 67c | 15.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NEOM SC win on 2026-02-02?this page
- Will Al Okhdood SC vs. NEOM SC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-02-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.