Premier League · resolved market
Will Newcastle vs. Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd27f942c1fb43132d8656c75f24965556a8de6b988530dc790f0e683f5991538
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,886
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,886 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a42…371abacked No | 77c | 9,999$7,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,299.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…3687backed Yes | 23c | 9,999$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,299.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes | 24c | 2,325$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 75c | 1,143$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.29 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca43…b369backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 23c | 861.9$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.24 | 414 | 37.9%157 W · 257 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…2391backed Yes | 23c | 800.91$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…d78dbacked Yes | 33c | 671.69$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4976…d0efbacked Yes | 23c | 541$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 213 | 53.1%113 W · 100 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…35b4backed Yes | 13c | 230.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed No | 68c | 221.88$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 138 | 29%40 W · 98 L | -13.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 13c | 215.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Yes | 15c | 160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 376 | 52.4%197 W · 179 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x965e…0062backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab1…ed8bbacked Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f9…da6bbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 835 | 59.3%495 W · 340 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 76c | 89.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked No | 77c | 75.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3180…2634backed Yes | 23c | 74.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 77c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 76c | 53.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5342…0f95backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 599 | 58.9%353 W · 246 L | +26.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Newcastle vs. Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-13?No won
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.