Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02834dbb4b6dec10daf5794c57eba1b2bc0552f65f27f86bd3fdf03a8eea7d61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 16c | 5,698$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.05 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 19c | 2,591$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.88 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 18c | 2,339$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.33 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Yes | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…35b1backed Yes | 18c | 1,106$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…395ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,029$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Yes | 3c | 850.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 11c | 524.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 143 | 42.7%61 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 18c | 511.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 327 | 37.6%123 W · 204 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked No | 75c | 503.88$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.74 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 5c | 450$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…7dccbacked Yes | 17c | 445.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f9…da6bbacked Yes | 9c | 444.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 19c | 444$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…7726backed Yes | 17c | 380$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 18c | 350.6$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 327 | 36.4%119 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 18c | 350$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3a…aad9backed Yes | 18c | 333.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4976…d0efbacked Yes | 19c | 318.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…2391backed Yes | 20c | 273.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b37…c06bbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…4dc8backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 18c | 228.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…5c37backed Yes | 18c | 166.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb913…b77ebacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8f…d91fbacked Yes | 18c | 133.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x530f…8714backed Yes | 19c | 125$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…b28abacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2453…28e2backed Yes | 18c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 256 | 37.9%97 W · 159 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd132…2cb5backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f37…582cbacked Yes | 18c | 111.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…49e4backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdce…b9bdbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8eb…ff2abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 22c | 96.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes | 14c | 90.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…353fbacked Yes | 21c | 84.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked No | 80c | 79.35$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc875…70f0backed Yes | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b26…6900backed Yes | 20c | 61.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…6ed1backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cb…27b3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc391…8f41backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6049…5c72backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 80c | 45.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-13?this page
- Will Newcastle vs. Manchester United end in a draw?No won
- Will Newcastle win on 2025-04-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.