MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2c3a1edd8e550e98af45958f58b31b6618c00e2b353382ada35167fdbd3bdfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96ac…61e8backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 2,943$1,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,373.43 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 2,687$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.12 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.9 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 2,220$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.85 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 48c | 2,080$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.4 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 1,942$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 1,683$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.25 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 1,460$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.58 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 1,298$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.23 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Chicago White Sox | 52c | 1,281$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.56 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 1,200$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.59 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 1,089$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.18 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 859.56$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.8 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Toronto Blue Jays | 52c | 775.71$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.22 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e9f4backed Chicago White Sox | 56c | 681.52$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.87 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 677.97$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.19 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 677.97$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.19 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 677.97$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.19 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Chicago White Sox | 53c | 677.97$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.19 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Chicago White Sox | 54c | 671.14$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.7 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 527.91$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.84 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Chicago White Sox | 55c | 486.5$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.92 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 478.82$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 466.91$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.12 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox | 70c | 414.52$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.58 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 409.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.39 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…4648backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 393.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 12c | 284.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 241.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 208.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Toronto Blue Jays | 30c | 201.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 47c | 183.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 145.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 141$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 113.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cb…85babacked Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe4…ff5cbacked Chicago White Sox | 53c | 90.56$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Blue Jays | 18c | 71.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 62.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…7bc7backed Chicago White Sox | 48c | 62.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…7ff9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 59.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 53.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 43.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 32c | 41.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 47c | 41.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa582…8ec0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Chicago White Sox | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Toronto Blue Jays | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 28.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…08f3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 46c | 28.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef56…b743backed Chicago White Sox | 58c | 28.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Chicago White Sox | 54c | 25.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Chicago White Sox | 55c | 21.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Chicago White Sox | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Chicago White Sox | 80c | 18.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Chicago White Sox | 73c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 4.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.