College Football · resolved market
Ohio State vs. Michigan: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2cfcfe55335b88129b2bfd3195aa1d4d34473dae0428d4e3c636142c7d933f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 50c | 11,321$5,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,620.75 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 6,677$3,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,340.64 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 50c | 3,903$1,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,951.5 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 50c | 1,537$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.6 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9607…2d3abacked Under | 53c | 1,321$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0303…2ae3backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Over | 53c | 94.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…4a49backed Over | 54c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x499e…c968backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a3…f56bbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ohio State vs. Michigan: O/U 43.5this page
- O/U 44.5Under won
- Ohio State vs. MichiganOhio State won
- Spread: Ohio State (-10.5)Ohio State won
- Spread: Ohio State (-11.5)Ohio State won
- Spread: Ohio State (-9.5)Ohio State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.