College Football · resolved market
Spread: Ohio State (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0d78f5479bcbb900c7e7b680f7f754362a4cb1ffc44f65bf9b3fc666b9bc0b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ohio Stateof Ohio State, Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Ohio State | 42c | 1,126$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.52 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b3…40d4backed Michigan | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Ohio State | 42c | 924.34$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.7 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…eb22backed Ohio State | 50c | 700$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…023abacked Michigan | 49c | 571.38$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Michigan | 58c | 450$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…c942backed Michigan | 57c | 237.95$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.63 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Michigan | 48c | 208.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1347…bc3dbacked Michigan | 58c | 196.45$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.94 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Ohio State | 46c | 141.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Ohio State | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Ohio State | 44c | 89.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Michigan | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan | 53c | 85.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…9ad6backed Michigan | 57c | 77.14$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Michigan | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Michigan | 57c | 61.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Michigan | 55c | 55.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9492…1f25backed Michigan | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Ohio State | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…7975backed Ohio State | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb317…1893backed Michigan | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f0…842abacked Ohio State | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…620cbacked Ohio State | 47c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Michigan | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…d4e3backed Michigan | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ohio State | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…4a49backed Michigan | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8f…20a3backed Michigan | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ohio State (-11.5)this page
- O/U 44.5Under won
- Ohio State vs. MichiganOhio State won
- Ohio State vs. Michigan: O/U 43.5Under won
- Spread: Ohio State (-10.5)Ohio State won
- Spread: Ohio State (-9.5)Ohio State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.