MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2eed9ec72464b12abb7225d6854da1ccd520240497cf3bc070da6f292b65fe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 53c | 95,812$50,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,780.47 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 47c | 75,000$35,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,750 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 13,917$6,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,385.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 48c | 3,214$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.18 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 47c | 2,576$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.58 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 2,026$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.85 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 52c | 1,888$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.81 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 1,777$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 47c | 1,700$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 1,143$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.55 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 47c | 636.88$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.55 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 68c | 603.74$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Under | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.65 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 78c | 571.57$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.89 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 47c | 488.02$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.65 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 459.99$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.49 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 406.33$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.29 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…d848backed Under | 53c | 377$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 116 | 62.9%73 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 302.82$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.49 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 210$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 164.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 47c | 140$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 26c | 127.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 53c | 116.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 54c | 72.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 16c | 67.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 59c | 60.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 48c | 51.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49e1…7bf6backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 53c | 48.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a8…c784backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Over | 48c | 39.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Under | 32c | 35.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 41c | 35.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 54c | 33.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…f631backed Under | 54c | 31.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 37c | 31.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7e77backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 46c | 21.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…7b57backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.