MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1645a6f45ee09a1dc7a211eaa0e9fa95d918574ce7c06e3bd4e4d3f84cf283a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 37c | 17,983$6,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,327.76 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 61c | 12,463$7,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,664.32 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 4,545$2,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.12 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 63c | 2,414$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.34 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 63c | 1,587$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.95 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 63c | 1,581$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.64 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 61c | 1,376$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.61 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 1,339$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 53c | 1,241$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.13 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 63c | 793.43$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.94 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Under | 63c | 560$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.8 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 63c | 476.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.96 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f3…293cbacked Over | 39c | 306.28$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.83 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 65c | 268$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 38c | 220.17$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.51 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 219.53$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 184.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.37 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 160.53$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 63c | 158.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 39c | 152.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 43c | 131.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 35c | 124.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 122.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Under | 63c | 92.06$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 63c | 79.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 23c | 76.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 39c | 66.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Under | 63c | 57.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 24c | 54.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 38c | 51.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 44c | 38.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1486…cef3backed Over | 39c | 36.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…5ff8backed Over | 39c | 36.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed Over | 39c | 35.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed Over | 39c | 35.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…a379backed Over | 39c | 35.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.86 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 60c | 35.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 76c | 31.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…e4edbacked Over | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Under | 46c | 24.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 52c | 20.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Over | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 56c | 19.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 69c | 18.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…822dbacked Under | 63c | 18.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d9…f7f5backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…868fbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…dd87backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…742cbacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.