MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29a905d119e70bb2fc98f6a3e2e2508f0e7a69315a9e5342c06bb08864ea7b44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 46c | 120,828$55,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55,381.12 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Over | 54c | 100,000$54,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,000 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 55c | 10,543$5,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,744.32 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 6,729$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,048.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 4,510$2,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.9 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.99 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 55c | 2,691$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.05 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 2,356$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.73 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 2,227$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 54c | 2,090$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.86 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 46c | 1,891$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 45c | 1,761$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.62 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 45c | 1,605$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.16 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 45c | 1,439$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.15 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…d241backed Under | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 47c | 1,048$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.36 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 985.81$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.76 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 47c | 832.97$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.04 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 580.54$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.64 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Over | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 507.15$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 45c | 464.44$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 47c | 455.62$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.14 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 47c | 455.55$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.11 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 45c | 447.5$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.86 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 47c | 340.78$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Over | 56c | 335.89$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.79 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 46c | 282.58$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.99 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 56c | 270$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 44c | 219.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 56c | 214.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.28 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 56c | 191.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c1…b038backed Under | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc626…9319backed Over | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 59c | 115.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 47c | 108.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 45c | 101.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 14c | 100.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 54c | 93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…7442backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 48c | 72.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Over | 56c | 70.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 56c | 63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 56c | 58.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683b…c863backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 45c | 43.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked Over | 56c | 42.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…e0b2backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe997…f92ebacked Over | 56c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Over | 55c | 35.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…0b91backed Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +6.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…2d29backed Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9632…a379backed Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 43c | 26.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 54c | 24.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 45c | 23.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Over | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore OriolesSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 11.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.