MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd31a491518b0cbdcbc28d4a5b032989316288e73f5aaed8945be94c2cf572282
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Seattle Mariners, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 910$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.8 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 800$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Atlanta Braves | 62c | 169.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4beb…bd08backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 165.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 73c | 155.32$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Seattle Mariners | 25c | 137.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Atlanta Braves | 62c | 104.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 95.03$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 73.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…e194backed Atlanta Braves | 69c | 60.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Atlanta Braves | 61c | 54.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Atlanta Braves | 63c | 52.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Atlanta Braves | 69c | 42.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Atlanta Braves | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 31.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 30.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 30.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle MarinersAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.