MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe996e684a66c6d19261c34efcbc3ece0c2a4bd3d8d50911b077c052e7f2d2326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec8a…21b7backed Under | 57c | 1,335$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 44c | 551.05$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.46 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 44c | 496.43$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.43 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 41c | 255.81$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 219.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 43c | 217.8$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.65 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 60c | 166.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 34c | 97.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 15c | 94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 40c | 87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 29c | 79.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 68.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 40c | 67.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…1b09backed Under | 43c | 39.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…998dbacked Over | 43c | 34.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 48c | 30.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 59c | 30.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 72c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle MarinersAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.