MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22893bf806921ccb3b046c27cb0c8b930bc6ef0958fc0b004d097f2aed096de0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54d2…ac37backed Over | 45c | 29,377$13,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,208.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 48c | 16,428$7,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,588.44 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 59c | 15,000$8,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,150.87 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 12,870$6,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,430.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 52c | 11,382$5,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,918.62 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 52c | 9,544$4,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,962.18 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 7,174$3,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,198.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 52c | 5,637$2,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,724.08 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…fb0fbacked Over | 50c | 3,781$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.45 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 47c | 2,847$1,338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.82 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 1,665$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.68 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 53c | 1,625$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.35 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 48c | 1,521$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.04 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 975.48$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.25 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 53c | 807.04$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.73 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 645.28$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 52c | 614.35$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.59 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 52c | 580.88$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.06 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.45 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 47c | 499.96$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.98 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 22c | 404.92$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…43dcbacked Under | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 12c | 347.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 41c | 317.31$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.1 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 47c | 291.03$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.25 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 52c | 280.28$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 66c | 271.76$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 209.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 57c | 184.65$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Under | 49c | 160.05$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 49c | 159.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Under | 49c | 152.38$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 31c | 128$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 53c | 125$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 51c | 116.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 45c | 107.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 66c | 106.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 37c | 104.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Over | 53c | 97.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e9…d331backed Under | 56c | 88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 55c | 85.23$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 55c | 77.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 21c | 72.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 51c | 68.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 55c | 63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd021…6f4ebacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 47c | 55.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 54c | 54.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 48c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 66c | 50.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 128 | 58.6%75 W · 53 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 68c | 46.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 58c | 45.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Under | 55c | 44.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 53c | 42.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 54c | 35.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 54c | 33.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213d…6224backed Under | 55c | 30.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089f…f599backed Over | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 53c | 28.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…1b09backed Under | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 80c | 27.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…5ce0backed Under | 54c | 22.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 53c | 21.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 53c | 20.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 58c | 19.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 55c | 19.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Over | 53c | 19.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle MarinersAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.