Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd322a0a94e165b2650f1f18a91afa5dd346260e30931f12997a7edee90c2006f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b7c…aaa5backed No | 5c | 3,005$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 591.38$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 51c | 302.02$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.8 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Yes | 68c | 264.15$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 247.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.39 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 241.38$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…b1e6backed Yes | 74c | 220.64$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 66cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 50c | 164.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 6c | 163.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 46c | 162.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 77c | 159.04$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 20c | 154.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 153.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 10c | 149.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 134.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 74c | 105.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 62c | 105.27$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 32c | 94.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 92.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 63c | 89$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 55c | 84.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed Yes | 40c | 83.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 64c | 74.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.63 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 39c | 64.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 28c | 60.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 33c | 57.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 49c | 51.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 47.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 23c | 47.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 36c | 45.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 45.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 62c | 43.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…615abacked No | 46c | 40.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 41c | 37.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 60c | 30.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 40c | 30.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 59c | 30.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 52c | 30.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 29.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…0179backed Yes | 36c | 29.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 69c | 28.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3607…745fbacked Yes | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 64cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked No | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 22.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 62c | 21.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12cc…275dbacked No | 74c | 20.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…27f9backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 18.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 65c | 15.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.