Serie A · resolved market
Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd354723f1b3f7c068a03e50190c4f879ebf53b10737d874fa121be2694171d31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 24c | 2,083$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 23c | 2,003$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.65 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 24c | 1,500$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.95 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 75c | 1,301$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.08 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82c…acb0backed Over | 25c | 1,211$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 76c | 645.68$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.96 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 25c | 600$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.98 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…9d67backed Over | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…c626backed Under | 74c | 384.62$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 22c | 272.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Under | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…773bbacked Over | 25c | 224$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 23c | 221.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 24c | 163.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Over | 13c | 144.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 24c | 120.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Over | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 22c | 68.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb723…7ae0backed Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +263.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 75c | 31.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Cagliari Calcio vs. Juventus FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.