Tennis · resolved market
Erste Bank Open: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3581f71cd7b4addb6ee451af4b23bf39e860a8c119bb11c1e3d2b00655c1776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Minaur | 11c | 11,369$1,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.6 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Minaur | 10c | 9,500$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Minaur | 11c | 5,900$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Minaur | 1c | 5,202$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c5…f211backed Minaur | 12c | 2,967$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Minaur | 6c | 1,999$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.95 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…9d85backed Minaur | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.94 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Minaur | 10c | 1,400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Minaur | 10c | 1,125$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.55 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Minaur | 4c | 953.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Minaur | 12c | 469.25$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 303 | 39.3%119 W · 184 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Minaur | 6c | 457.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Minaur | 9c | 451.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Minaur | 4c | 387.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Minaur | 10c | 325.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f6…b90cbacked Minaur | 11c | 221.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Minaur | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…cbe5backed Minaur | 11c | 186.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Minaur | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…7d56backed Minaur | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Minaur | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.