Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd362bd1e83024098eefc1cc4d5d31afed0adfeee6e8c519106fe99e10300a3e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 21c | 501.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 464.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.65 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 11c | 324$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.6 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 65c | 314.44$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.87 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 29c | 299.3$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 8c | 247.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 39c | 244.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.55 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 70c | 220.36$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 73c | 181.1$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 33c | 180.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.19 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 174.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.87 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 155.87$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 150.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.91 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…f00abacked Yes | 71c | 137.45$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 11c | 125.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.6 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 103$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked Yes | 38c | 101.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 11c | 97.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 38c | 96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 90.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 17c | 74.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 52c | 72.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…43abbacked Yes | 35c | 71.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…547fbacked Yes | 37c | 58.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +234.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…777cbacked No | 22c | 56.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +199.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 20c | 50.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 68c | 49.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 32c | 46.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 48c | 41.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…1b96backed Yes | 71c | 27.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 80c | 24.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 75c | 22.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 63c | 18.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C or below on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.