MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd36d4abc31e112559feeebae895778ca0b78471501920f3d69f20615f546c9ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 5c | 2,536$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.22 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 5c | 2,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Under | 6c | 1,672$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 64c | 826.59$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.85 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 644.83$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.39 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 64c | 566.08$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.29 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Under | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 64c | 381.19$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.96 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 37c | 302.43$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.53 | 411 | 41.4%170 W · 241 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Over | 70c | 286.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.12 | 322 | 66.5%214 W · 108 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…b6a4backed Under | 40c | 285.27$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.51 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 28c | 250.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 171.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 33c | 145$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 48c | 120.54$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 19c | 103.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Over | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 48c | 45.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 63c | 45.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 35c | 44.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 25.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 71c | 24.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…e0b2backed Under | 65c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa51d…2333backed Under | 64c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd07…aa5ebacked Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…2ba2backed Under | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…a8bcbacked Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…d260backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d1…5a29backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11aa…0009backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e3…4950backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c52…2ae6backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0c…eefbbacked Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…f529backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…3f86backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dd…cec5backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…31b5backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…0742backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d90…bb78backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ee…6e3dbacked Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…6259backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…3f56backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7711…11dfbacked Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077d…1655backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62c…e930backed Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.