MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d9e292868c608d86bb67cd9f2f89e74b94caa4914f26b57a6f4242d31fe2d28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ce0…6599backed Under | 6c | 3,200$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 5cpaid | +545.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…5777backed Under | 7c | 2,767$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.36 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +363.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Under | 8c | 1,553$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.66 | 75 | 6.7%5 W · 70 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5886…fe3bbacked Under | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 5cpaid | +609.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8963…c780backed Under | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +288.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 65c | 999.99$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Under | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 21c | 298$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 74c | 262.48$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.23 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 7c | 246.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…b845backed Over | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 268 | 60.4%162 W · 106 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 77c | 189$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 38c | 142.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 140.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 39c | 128.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 128.18$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 21c | 113.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 13c | 106.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 45c | 99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 22c | 95.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Under | 27c | 91.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 37c | 72.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 20c | 59.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Over | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 160 | 57.5%92 W · 68 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa143…04c1backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.