MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x123f81d81e6f177fdda1a4c69ccc8575ca259fcacda503675fa6928c086e4ffb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 41,013$20,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,921.13 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 47c | 10,817$5,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,732.83 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 8,610$4,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,441.95 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Under | 51c | 7,935$4,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,046.85 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +221.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Under | 53c | 5,500$2,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,915 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 48c | 5,208$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,708.33 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…98dcbacked Under | 51c | 4,180$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 3,884$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.84 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…396cbacked Under | 52c | 3,866$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.56 | 195 | 46.2%90 W · 105 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 52c | 2,803$1,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.44 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2037…473dbacked Under | 52c | 2,095$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.17 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 52c | 1,846$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.05 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 52c | 1,642$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.73 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 48c | 1,563$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.5 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 48c | 1,333$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.36 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 55c | 1,273$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.11 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 1,136$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 52c | 749.15$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 50c | 619.79$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.05 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 600$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 48c | 586.87$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.65 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 45c | 487.8$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.29 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Under | 53c | 457$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.21 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 48c | 345.21$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.51 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 297.56$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 48c | 231.15$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…9dbabacked Over | 49c | 198.71$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5794…4d61backed Over | 48c | 193.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e8…d265backed Under | 53c | 191.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Over | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 52c | 148$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 51c | 120.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ae…55f8backed Over | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 48c | 78.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 77.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 48c | 70.54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…12d6backed Over | 48c | 63.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 138 | 53.6%74 W · 64 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 48c | 60.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Over | 48c | 57.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 48c | 52.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 56c | 42.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe604…dc02backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d3…5ae4backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 48c | 29.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Over | 48c | 28.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae40…9edabacked Under | 53c | 27.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…6783backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 252 | 56.7%143 W · 109 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Under | 53c | 22.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 21.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…4430backed Under | 53c | 19.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.