MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7220a292cf81a7caa939311ea00a2bd362dede3ab80d096a78f0ef963f2cb41d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 22,477$8,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,541.4 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 6,122$3,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,331.16 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 6,000$3,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,280 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 5,773$3,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.57 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…1187backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 2,616$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 379 | 53.6%203 W · 176 L | +18.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 2,045$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.43 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 1,069$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.24 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 1,065$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.7 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 964.37$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.79 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 957.97$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.03 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 914.42$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.48 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 843.76$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.07 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 828.86$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.97 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 385.71$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.57 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 300.31$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.12 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Minnesota Twins | 72c | 296.82$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 268.3$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 256.56$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.83 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 19c | 233.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 66c | 187.04$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.31 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…3c72backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 183.5$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.73 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Minnesota Twins | 76c | 180$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 158.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 32c | 153.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 13c | 143.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Minnesota Twins | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 108.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 12c | 104.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…13e5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 98.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 96.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Minnesota Twins | 55c | 78.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0c…14cebacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 78.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 145 | 55.9%81 W · 64 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 75.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Minnesota Twins | 63c | 67.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 65.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92fe…f901backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 50.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…4ee3backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 41.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 116 | 58.6%68 W · 48 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a58…f9d8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 28.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 25.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4214…4245backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Minnesota Twins | 63c | 22.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Minnesota Twins | 77c | 18.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.