Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd394de488cd6bb3e35c09d35c62185e764fda265323d18d0d67b75fa77c435f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 554.42$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b3…6d19backed No | 3c | 467.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 51c | 392.11$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 374.22$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 336.9$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.77 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 33c | 313.1$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.3 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 62c | 265.93$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.57 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 39c | 242.5$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 40c | 177.64$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.75 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 38c | 176.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 176.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 143.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 48c | 133.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 48c | 122.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 32c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 33c | 103.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 97.15$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 56c | 94.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 14c | 89.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 53c | 87.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 85.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…b21cbacked Yes | 41c | 84.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 66c | 73.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 49c | 72.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked Yes | 36c | 66.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…d1d2backed Yes | 28c | 64.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 62.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 60.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 35c | 60.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 49c | 60.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 38c | 56.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 42c | 55.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 55.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffd…4325backed Yes | 46c | 54.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed No | 26c | 51.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…9061backed No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 35c | 45.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed Yes | 47c | 45.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…426fbacked Yes | 42c | 45.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 48c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 30c | 42.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 74c | 41.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 41.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 35c | 40.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 49c | 38.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 34c | 36.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…edb0backed Yes | 48c | 35.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 48c | 34.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 57c | 34.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 36c | 33.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 58c | 32.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 31.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…a545backed Yes | 49c | 31.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 114 | 69.3%79 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 64c | 29.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 29.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 29.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 51c | 27.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 38c | 27.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 66c | 27.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 66c | 26.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 51c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 23.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 71c | 21.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5668…e477backed No | 69c | 21.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 72c | 20.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 58c | 17.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.