Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb69ee3025ba15a442df6df88bfd3e64e12befc9902b3486d4fcae5af2d65c94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 42c | 453.94$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.66 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 345.7$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.58 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 32c | 337.84$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 36c | 301.16$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 294.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.11 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 271.37$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 76c | 245.72$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.53 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 65c | 234.11$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 25c | 232.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 216.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 191.07$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 179.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 41c | 178.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.34 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 61c | 173.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 162.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 154.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 70c | 136.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.77 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 67c | 133.19$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 35c | 132.18$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 130.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 38c | 121.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 50c | 112.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 76c | 106.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 14c | 91.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…bc41backed Yes | 68c | 85.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 78.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 74.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e1…1b93backed Yes | 68c | 69.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked Yes | 24c | 65.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 50c | 64.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 19c | 64.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 60.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 58.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 58.08$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 55.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 33c | 54.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 60c | 53.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 52.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 52.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 51c | 48.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…17a9backed Yes | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 50c | 46.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…426fbacked Yes | 40c | 46.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 69c | 45.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 36c | 42.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 52c | 42.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 41.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 32c | 38.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 36.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 36.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 54c | 36.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 51c | 36.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 34.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 34.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 63c | 33.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 70c | 29.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…cdd8backed Yes | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 40c | 29.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 27.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 76c | 25.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 50c | 22.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b61…6bbcbacked Yes | 54c | 22.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 48c | 22.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 53c | 22.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffd…4325backed Yes | 47c | 21.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 79c | 21.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 21.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 74c | 20.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 68c | 19.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 75c | 19.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 67c | 19.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 72c | 16.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 74c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 76c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.