TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,495
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,495 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x52a4…ca72backed Yes42c453.94$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.666631.8%21 W · 45 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes48c345.7$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.895,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No59c337.99$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.5881165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes32c337.84$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1839951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes36c301.16$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2154143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No68c294.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.112,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No46c271.37$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes76c245.72$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.537070%49 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7650…5099backed Yes65c234.11$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.072544%11 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes25c232.09$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5115328.1%43 W · 110 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes31c216.51$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.421,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No78c191.07$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0351762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes23c179.58$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.917,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes41c178.88$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3434846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes61c173.65$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.633058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes36c162.66$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9663538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes37c154.72$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.552,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed Yes70c136.33$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7716157.1%92 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes67c133.19$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5957659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes35c132.18$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7749941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No75c130.11$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.221,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes38c121.07$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.331,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes50c112.92$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9852533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No76c106.04$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.982,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No14c91.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.61,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x652f…bc41backed Yes68c85.51$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.575349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No73c78.28$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.252,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No63c74.46$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3634250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e1…1b93backed Yes68c69.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.431241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x362f…b8eabacked Yes24c65.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.535549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No50c64.8$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.2653547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ead…b7bfbacked No19c64.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.724170.7%29 W · 12 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+46.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c63.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.952,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Yes63c60.75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0598160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes22c58.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7926834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No71c58.08$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.732,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No72c55.44$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes33c54.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1283459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No60c53.31$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.31,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No74c52.69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes48c52.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.893,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e9…2ea5backed No49c51.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0217855.6%99 W · 79 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes51c48.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6435465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…17a9backed Yes41c47.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2916530.9%51 W · 114 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+31.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes41c47.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.291,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No50c46.76$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.480957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7e…426fbacked Yes40c46.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.811464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No69c45.45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.094,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes36c42.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.076827.9%19 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No52c42.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.3546444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No68c41.83$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2386173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.272466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes32c38.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2656131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No66c36.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.492,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes54c36.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No54c36.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.823,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes51c36.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4740739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfba3…4e15backed No50c34.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4727851.8%144 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes33c34.24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.235,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No63c33.06$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No59c33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.14,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed No70c29.93$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.981,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca85…cdd8backed Yes65c29.69$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.31050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e99…b482backed Yes40c29.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6242544%187 W · 238 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked No63c27.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1493837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No72c27.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.671,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5005…620cbacked No75c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.55961%36 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.12per pick73cpaid-17.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x34ab…4e36backed No75c26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.519772.6%143 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2060…9e6cbacked No76c25.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.184766%31 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed No74c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked No50c22.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.61163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+44.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b61…6bbcbacked Yes54c22.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4120%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No48c22.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.871,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed No53c22.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.3935323.2%82 W · 271 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ffd…4325backed Yes47c21.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-46.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed No79c21.47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.436958%40 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No73c21.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6552571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7b…bc29backed No74c20.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3714666.4%97 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeedf…71e6backed Yes68c19.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.172941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No75c19.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.861,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes67c19.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.841,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No72c16.65$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7320161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabee…ab7dbacked No74c15.79$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.118360.2%50 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No76c15.62$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7618272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.