Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3acb581c5f205873c71f2809947d5f604f19aa1dc4a97446040cbd3be350281
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 291.86$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.17 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 24c | 269.82$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.97$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 35c | 237.74$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.84 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 36c | 137.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.52 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 46c | 122.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked Yes | 48c | 113.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 141 | 44%62 W · 79 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 24c | 110.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 32c | 94.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 75c | 79.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…9534backed Yes | 70c | 75.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 25c | 70.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 53c | 66.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 71c | 64.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 27c | 58.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 56.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 54.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 78c | 54.35$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 47.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 46.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 78c | 45.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 56c | 45.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed Yes | 77c | 42.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 39.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354e…c0b2backed No | 34c | 35.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 60c | 34.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 32.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 30.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 67c | 28.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 39c | 28.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed No | 76c | 27.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9de…6deabacked Yes | 76c | 25.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 45c | 25.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 80c | 20.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 77c | 13.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.