Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ecuador win on 2025-11-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3c1383eb973d35eb6fcfad31ad44816c64303bfa8a67fc75bef276e33e5d89c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 29c | 3,006$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.38 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 78c | 2,241$1,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.61 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 28c | 1,500$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.98 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…784ebacked Yes | 71c | 1,404$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 28c | 857.45$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.08 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 8c | 604$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 70c | 453$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.72 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 69c | 222.46$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Yes | 70c | 209$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 30c | 149.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 77c | 146.06$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 69c | 142.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a51…4cc0backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d20…3912backed Yes | 76c | 108$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 71c | 107.51$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb10…b134backed Yes | 72c | 98.39$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc4…52c8backed Yes | 72c | 91.26$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed No | 30c | 87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…86e1backed Yes | 70c | 79.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 70c | 74.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 550 | 45.1%248 W · 302 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed No | 30c | 72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…d8e2backed Yes | 69c | 67.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9d…da85backed Yes | 70c | 54.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 24c | 52.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17da…8375backed Yes | 71c | 52.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6244…d154backed Yes | 71c | 46.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7765…f23fbacked Yes | 72c | 44.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 72c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc425…6268backed Yes | 71c | 43.66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 32c | 43.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…4ea6backed Yes | 71c | 42.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…5fbdbacked Yes | 71c | 40.85$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06a…5ae7backed Yes | 71c | 40.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x943d…7aa1backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…8ab6backed Yes | 71c | 39.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd543…e995backed Yes | 71c | 38.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 178 | 51.1%91 W · 87 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf4…3ad1backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…b51bbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9d…35f8backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…981dbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…0c89backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Yes | 76c | 18.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc906…fe7abacked Yes | 69c | 14.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ecuador win on 2025-11-18?this page
- Will Ecuador vs. New Zealand end in a draw?No won
- Will New Zealand win on 2025-11-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.