TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdd9d…da85

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Champions League, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 57 out of 100; worst NFL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST1656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+132.6%+$26.51
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+75.4%+$18.86
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+42.9%+$15
Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+61.3%+$15.32
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+75.4%+$16.6
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+209.1%+$48.09
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+170.3%+$34.05
Will Brentford win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+47.1%+$11.76
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+25%+$7.5
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$24
All 16 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST1384.6%11 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick73cpaid+17.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jazz vs. Netsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+58.7%+$13.51
Celtics vs. Wizardsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+26.6%+$5.85
Warriors vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+63.9%+$12.79
Hornets vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+25%+$6.5
Nets vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$26
Spurs vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+33.3%+$8.33
Bucks vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+35.1%+$7.73
Knicks vs. Hornetsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+40.8%+$8.17
Magic vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+37%+$14.42
Raptors vs. Pacersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+40.8%+$16.34
Hornets vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+28.2%+$11.28
Trail Blazers vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+33.3%+$10
All 13 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST1181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+42.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+42.9%+$12
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+53.8%+$13.46
Will Sporting CP win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+58.7%+$11.75
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+127.3%+$28
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Will FC København win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+33.3%+$8.33
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+92.3%+$24
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+117.4%+$27
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+31.6%+$7.89
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+108.3%+$27.08
All 11 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick74cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bucknell Bison vs. Bowling Green Falconsbacked Bowling Green Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+31.6%+$6.32
Stony Brook Seawolves vs. Pacific Tigersbacked Pacific Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+44.9%+$9.88
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartansbacked Kentucky Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Pittsburgh Panthers vs. West Virginia Mountaineersbacked West Virginia Mountaineers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+31.9%+$12.76
All 4 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Western Michigan vs. Eastern Michiganbacked Western Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+38.9%+$9.72
Central Michigan vs. Kent State Golden Flashesbacked Central Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+33.3%+$13
Troy vs. Old Dominionbacked Old Dominion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+25%+$7.25
All 3 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bengals vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Bills vs. Texansbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$38
Jets vs. Patriotsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$23.77
All 3 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+75.4%+$22.63
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+108.3%+$24.92
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trabzonspor win on 2025-11-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+185.7%+$37.14
Will Konyaspor win on 2025-11-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$25
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Islandersbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Sharks vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+29.9%+$6.27
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-11-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$35
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+26.6%+$9.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Ninetails vs Nova Esports GC (BO3)backed Nova Esports GC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+37.9%+$7.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2025-11-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+29.9%+$8.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.