NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3ceaba77d8a3768aa0a869778ab48f371e4ebf15a42369aad6e542e615c9b63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 48c | 25,000$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,999.97 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Over | 52c | 16,346$8,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,846.15 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 52c | 4,238$2,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,034.41 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 3,415$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 3,094$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Under | 53c | 1,600$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…afd1backed Under | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 52c | 429.02$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.09 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Under | 55c | 292.02$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 231.02$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.06 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 158 | 53.8%85 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Under | 54c | 185$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Under | 20c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Under | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 37c | 98.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 46c | 79.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4458…aebabacked Under | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 52c | 46.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae66backed Over | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7d…fccebacked Under | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Over | 52c | 22.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb6…a2fcbacked Under | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 164 | 29.9%49 W · 115 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Over | 73c | 17.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Celtics vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.