NBA · resolved market
Celtics vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7434f48e6e89142616fa03f92f650167f3cc6d22039a98da360787cb68e91e49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Over | 54c | 21,689$11,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,033.63 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 10,110$4,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,650.6 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 5,886$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 14c | 3,352$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…35d6backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5664…4843backed Under | 50c | 1,580$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 1,321$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.44 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 48c | 1,083$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 25c | 968.71$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.53 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Over | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 256 | 42.6%109 W · 147 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82e…5089backed Under | 50c | 590$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Over | 11c | 545$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.05 | 390 | 18.2%71 W · 319 L | +27.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 46c | 448.23$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.21 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 49c | 445.24$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.17 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 13c | 413$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f7…b542backed Under | 50c | 380$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 363.39$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.16 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 50c | 298$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 54c | 275$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Over | 38c | 257.06$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.38 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Under | 48c | 212.04$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 53c | 196.53$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.37 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…66b2backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…32a5backed Under | 48c | 190$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…0c85backed Over | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…73bcbacked Over | 51c | 119.61$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 54c | 112.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 43c | 112.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 635 | 55.6%353 W · 282 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9984…cfdcbacked Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 20c | 109.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.87 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…95ddbacked Over | 53c | 101.7$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.8 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked Under | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 21c | 54.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Over | 53c | 45.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Under | 47c | 40.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…79c2backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 67c | 34.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…91c0backed Over | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91fc…fbe4backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424b…ed19backed Under | 47c | 24.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Under | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…fd12backed Over | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d0…ed5dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Celtics vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Celtics vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.