NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28d86522bb59f3e6c94cdb634b7a63c20e57a31ef7577259728463a5668805e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Timberwolves, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Timberwolves | 49c | 11,044$5,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,411.36 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca1…dd13backed Celtics | 53c | 9,434$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,433.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves | 47c | 7,240$3,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,433.19 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Timberwolves | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.76 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…ce9bbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 5,306$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Celtics | 52c | 3,522$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,690.56 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Celtics | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.79 | 419 | 54.4%228 W · 191 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Celtics | 52c | 1,863$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.98 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves | 46c | 1,453$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.53 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,300$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Celtics | 50c | 1,291$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.24 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Celtics | 49c | 1,137$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.87 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…e220backed Celtics | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Celtics | 50c | 941.64$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.91 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f8…09f7backed Celtics | 53c | 938.45$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.07 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Timberwolves | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Celtics | 52c | 845$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.6 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Celtics | 53c | 755.79$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.22 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 50c | 514.77$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 47c | 503.75$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.01 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Timberwolves | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Celtics | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 203.51$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Timberwolves | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Timberwolves | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f5…87f0backed Celtics | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Celtics | 48c | 194.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Timberwolves | 53c | 140.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Celtics | 52c | 104.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Timberwolves | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…cf81backed Timberwolves | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 189 | 55%104 W · 85 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Celtics | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 99 | 39.4%39 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Timberwolves | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…701fbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 78.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Celtics | 48c | 66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8d…a108backed Timberwolves | 52c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Celtics | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…54a9backed Celtics | 48c | 47.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Celtics | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…9b10backed Timberwolves | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3b…f7c2backed Timberwolves | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Celtics | 52c | 33.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Celtics | 51c | 21.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Celtics won
- Celtics vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Celtics vs. Timberwolves: O/U 227.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Timberwolves: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Celtics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.