Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Hradec Králové vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3fdfd5f500bc3fbfefbe24263f146c4eece0814d66eb79ebd87becfca6a2eae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 49c | 9,464$4,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,870.94 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 4,982$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.45 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed Over | 54c | 2,169$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.92 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 1,704$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.79 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…c93abacked Under | 41c | 1,483$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.93 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 45c | 995.2$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.29 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…77e6backed Over | 59c | 968.2$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.85 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Over | 45c | 739.14$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.69 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…794ebacked Over | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 45c | 493.13$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.95 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Under | 17c | 459.47$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.18 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +8.6wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Over | 51c | 294.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 41c | 272.64$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.57 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ac…0510backed Over | 59c | 243.89$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 55c | 236.7$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.71 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 191.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 45c | 137.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 43c | 135.63$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 45c | 132.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e0…7387backed Under | 61c | 130.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 42c | 103$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Over | 19c | 99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd7…7a69backed Over | 61c | 80.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 59c | 70.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…ebd0backed Under | 36c | 66.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 23c | 64.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 62c | 63.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 64c | 56.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbafe…874dbacked Over | 62c | 45.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 29c | 43.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5c…c372backed Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 42c | 35.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 53c | 34.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 334 | 46.7%156 W · 178 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Over | 50c | 22.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc831…1989backed Over | 60c | 18.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Hradec Králové vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Hradec Králové vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Hradec Králové vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Hradec Králové vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Hradec Králové vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Hradec Králové vs. Tromsø IL: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Hradec Králové vs. Tromsø IL: Team to AdvanceFC Hradec Králové won
- FC Hradec Králové vs. Tromsø IL: Tromsø IL O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: FC Hradec Králové (-1.5)FC Hradec Králové won
- Spread: FC Hradec Králové (-2.5)Tromsø IL won
- Spread: Tromsø IL (-1.5)FC Hradec Králové won
- Spread: Tromsø IL (-2.5)FC Hradec Králové won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.