Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd424ac4ac68f523c4789fbee896d255dc4b50e24003748586feeabbcd49ca9a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,479
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,479 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 26c | 4,421$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.42 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…4688backed No | 74c | 3,851$2,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Yes | 27c | 2,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked No | 73c | 1,964$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.17 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 73c | 1,724$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.6 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 73c | 1,300$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 17c | 1,250$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 27c | 758.59$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.82 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 3c | 508.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +285.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 481$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 74c | 430$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 26c | 403.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 377.63$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.96 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 335.75$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 321.37$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.17 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 18c | 224.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 11c | 167.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d73…3639backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed No | 74c | 89.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb269…6adebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0548…77c2backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 62.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…bcc6backed Yes | 27c | 51.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fa…ebf3backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 73c | 38.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 27.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-01-11?Yes won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-01-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.